EPI's Heidi Shierholz on Tripling Union Membership and What It Would Mean

Heidi Shierholz, president of the Economic Policy Institute, joined the America's Work Force Union Podcast to discuss EPI's July 2026 report on tripling union density in the United States to 30 percent.

The report, which includes a foreword by EPI co-founder and former U.S. Secretary of Labor Robert Reich, uses empirical analysis of historical data to model what would happen to wages, benefits and the broader economy if union density reached 30 percent, a figure that reflects where Canada sits today and where the United States was before decades of sustained attacks on collective bargaining rights.

According to the analysis, tripling union density would raise the median worker's pay by 14.5 percent, approximately $7,700 per year and nearly $270,000 over a 35-year career. It would also shift $1.2 trillion annually from shareholders and corporate executives to working people, reversing a full third of the rise in inequality since 1979. The EPI report also predicted that the greater union density would cut the number of nonelderly Americans without health insurance by approximately 25 percent, close racial wage gaps by more than one-third, and produce annual wage increases ranging from $1,900 to $10,600, depending on the state.

Shierholz also discussed two new policy proposals EPI introduced in the report, the ongoing importance of the PRO Act and the Faster Labor Contracts Act and what states can do right now, including a finding that ensuring collective bargaining rights for all public sector workers alone would raise national union density from 9.9 percent to 14.4 percent.

• Tripling union density to 30 percent is not a radical proposal: more than one in three American workers were unionized before decades of policy neglect and employer attacks reduced union density to its current level, and Canada's union density is 30.6 percent today. The EPI report used empirical analysis of historical relationships between union density and wages to model what tripling density would produce, finding that the median worker across the entire economy, union and non-union alike, would see a 14.5 percent pay increase, or approximately $7,700 per year. That type of revenue shift would amount to $1.2 trillion annually, moving from corporate executives and shareholders to working people. The annual state-by-state wage increases would range from $1,900 to $10,600, the report predicted.
• Two new policy proposals are introduced in the report. First, a guaranteed annual cost-of-living raise for newly unionized workers whose first contracts go to arbitration, giving organizers the ability to tell workers that a union vote is a vote for a guaranteed raise of approximately $2,000 per year for the typical worker. Second, default collective bargaining rights apply to any company where the CEO is paid more than 100 times the typical worker's pay in that industry. This would build on public support for unions and public outrage at executive pay to automatically extend bargaining rights where compensation is most out of balance.
• Shierholz also addressed the racial equity dimension of the report's findings. Unions provide a pay boost to all workers, but provide a somewhat larger boost to Black and Hispanic workers, meaning tripling union density would close racial wage gaps by more than one-third. Racial wage gaps in the United States are currently wider than they were 50 years ago. At the state level, ensuring collective bargaining rights for all public sector workers alone would increase national union density from 9.9 percent to 14.4 percent, Shierholz said.

The Report and What It Set Out to Do

The Economic Policy Institute was founded 40 years ago with roots in the labor movement. It has long documented the benefits of unions to workers and the broader economy. But the report Heidi Shierholz discussed on this episode was different: a rigorous analysis of what would happen to wages, benefits and the economy if union density in the United States reached 30 percent, tripling from its current level.

The methodology draws on decades of historical data to establish the relationship between union density and worker pay, then models what those relationships would produce at 30 percent density. The foreword was written by Robert Reich, former U.S. Secretary of Labor during the Clinton administration and a co-founder of EPI. The findings extrapolate from changes in the economy as union density fluctuated over time.

30 percent Is Not a Radical Number

Before decades of sustained attacks on unions and collective bargaining, more than one in three American workers were in a union. And Canada, which has an industrial relations system structurally similar to the American one, currently has a union density of 30.6 percent. The difference is that Canada did not allow workers’ rights and collective bargaining to erode the way the United States did, Shierholz said. Getting back to 30 percent would require both sustained nationwide organizing and serious policy reform, but it is not a number that should surprise anyone.

What Tripling Union Density Would Actually Do

Shierholz outlined the report's main findings.

She began with the forecast that tripling union density would raise the median worker's pay by 14.5 percent, approximately $7,700 per year. That $7,700 is not just for union workers. It is for the median worker across the entire economy, Shierholz said, because strong unions raise standards broadly, including at non-union workplaces that must compete for workers in a labor market where unions have set a higher floor. From an affordability perspective, she noted that $7,700 represents more than 40 percent of the median annual mortgage cost in the United States. Over a 35-year career, $7,700 per year adds up to nearly $270,000 in today's dollars. Annual wage increases would vary by state, ranging from $1,900 to $10,600, depending on local labor market conditions.

From there, Shierholz explained that tripling union density would shift $1.2 trillion annually from shareholders and corporate executives to working people. This would permanently restructure the country's wage distribution, and reverse a third of the rise in economic inequality since 1979.

Next, the report looked at how unions boost benefits even more than wages. Tripling union density would cut the number of nonelderly Americans without health insurance by approximately 25 percent, according to the report. In a country where health insurance is largely tied to employment, that is a significant public health finding, Shierholz said.

Finally, the racial equity dimension was addressed. Racial wage gaps in the United States are wider now than they were 50 years ago. Unions provide a pay boost to all workers, but the boost is somewhat larger for Black and Hispanic workers. Tripling union density would close racial wage gaps by more than one-third, according to the report.

The Pay-Productivity Gap and How It Got This Wide

Shierholz offered a statistic that puts the current economic moment in context. Worker pay used to keep pace with productivity, the overall measure of economic growth. Roughly 50 years ago, those two lines began to diverge. If typical worker pay had kept pace with productivity over the past 45 years rather than falling behind, the typical worker's paycheck today would be roughly 40 percent larger, Shierholz said. The gap represents income generated by workers that was instead shifted to shareholders and executives. Boosting unionization is a core part of closing that gap.

The Policy Roadmap: Federal and State

Shierholz laid out what it would take at both the federal and state levels to achieve the targeted increase in union density.

At the federal level, the foundational bills are the PRO Act and the Public Service Freedom to Negotiate Act. Both are designed to close the loopholes in labor law that have allowed employers to undermine unions and collective bargaining over decades. She noted that the PRO Act has passed the House twice with bipartisan support, and that the Faster Labor Contracts Act, which pulls one PRO Act provision out and advances it separately, passed the U.S. House in June 2026 with support from every Democrat and 20 Republicans. Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is leading the effort to advance the bill in the U.S. Senate.

To work alongside those foundational bills, the EPI report introduced two new policy proposals. The first is a guaranteed annual cost-of-living raise for newly unionized workers whose first contracts go to arbitration. For the typical worker, a 3 percent cost-of-living adjustment means roughly $2,000 extra per year. This gives union organizers something concrete to offer workers during an organizing drive. The second policy change is the granting of collective bargaining rights at any company where the CEO is paid more than 100 times the typical worker's pay in that industry. Shierholz acknowledged that, by count, the majority of companies may not clear that bar, but the companies that do tend to be very large, meaning the policy would cover a significant share of the workforce.

At the state level, the National Labor Relations Act largely preempts state action regarding private-sector collective bargaining, but states retain other meaningful tools, Shierholz said. Repealing So-Called “Right-to-Work” laws is one of the most important. Michigan has done it. And the NLRA says nothing about public sector workers, which gives states significant room to act. The EPI report finds that ensuring collective bargaining rights for all public sector workers alone would increase national union density from 9.9 percent to 14.4 percent. States can also extend bargaining rights to workers currently excluded from the NLRA entirely, including gig workers, agricultural workers and many domestic workers.

So-Called “Right-to-Work” and the Long Damage It Has Done

On So-Called “Right-to-Work,” Shierholz was blunt. The laws have done exactly what their proponents intended: reduce union density and starve unions of the resources they need to organize and bargain effectively. She described them as right-to-work-for-less and said that repealing them, wherever states have the political will, is one of the most direct available steps toward rebuilding collective bargaining.

The Affordability Conversation Nobody Is Having

Shierholz addressed what she described as a frustration with the current national conversation about affordability. That conversation is almost entirely focused on prices, as if making things cheaper is the only path to making life more affordable. Affordability is determined by whether you earn enough to cover the cost of living with dignity, she said. A $7,700 annual raise for the median worker is an affordability intervention. It is just one that requires building union power rather than cutting prices.

The full report and all supporting data are available at epi.org.

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