Tom Buffenbarger, retired International President of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM Union), joined the America's Work Force Union Podcast to discuss what he has heard recently about how AI and quantum computing are affecting skilled professional work.
While he was driving to the IAM Kentucky State Council meeting and an IAM Union charity event, Buffenbarger said an internationally recognized architect who designed the IAM Union’s headquarters in 1992 called to share what has changed in the design process. What once took 18 to 24 months to design and present can now be done in five minutes, complete with applicable building codes, utility connections and site specifications, Buffenbarger was told. Contractors no longer need architects as intermediaries, Buffenbarger was told. He also discussed conversations he had with Tennessee Valley Authority workers about the surging electricity demand driven by data centers and AI infrastructure, the coming return to nuclear energy as the practical answer to that demand and future manufacturing plant designs without basic human infrastructure — restrooms, cafeterias and parking lots.
Buffenbarger’s assessment is that AI-driven changes are happening faster than the world can absorb, and the uncertainty it creates is dangerous. The workers who will feel it most are those entering careers today, he added.
- An internationally recognized architect who designed the IAM Union headquarters told Buffenbarger during a recent phone call that AI and quantum computing have compressed 18 to 24 months of architectural design work into five minutes. Clients can now be shown concept images within minutes and receive full proposals, including building codes, power, water and sewage specifications within 15 minutes. The architect said contractors are beginning to bypass architects entirely and go directly to quantum computing, which will significantly reduce demand for the profession.
- TVA members at the IAM Kentucky State Council described a manufacturing landscape in which some new plant designs eliminate or dramatically reduce human infrastructure, such as restrooms, cafeterias, break rooms and parking lots. These elements are being scaled back as clients envision factories with minimal human workers. Meanwhile, the electricity demand generated by data centers and AI infrastructure is so significant that employees at the TVA predict a return to nuclear energy as the practical path to meeting power demands, Buffenbarger was told, bringing a wave of new construction jobs, only to be followed by many new facilities requiring fewer workers.
- Buffenbarger described the picture painted for him in Kentucky as scary and full of uncertainty. He said the belief is to “grab it while you can,” rather than to plan for such a transition. He expressed particular concern for his grandchildren's generation, who will struggle to determine what type of work will remain. He identified energy as the sector that will generate the most durable employment given that the entire AI infrastructure requires massive power generation to function.
A Charity Event and a Phone Call That Changed the Conversation
Tom Buffenbarger recently traveled to Kentucky for the IAM Kentucky State Council meeting and the Tom Buffenbarger Skeet Shoot, an annual fundraiser benefiting Guide Dogs of America, an IAM Union charity founded in 1948 to provide guide dogs to people with visual impairments. The school is located in Sylmar, Calif., where participants are brought on site, paired with a dog and trained for several weeks before returning home. There is continuous follow-up from the school throughout each dog's life. If a dog ages out or something happens to it, it is replaced. Buffenbarger said the charity has grown into one of the best and largest guide dog schools in the country, with strong donor support, including bequests and celebrity involvement.
On the drive to Kentucky, Buffenbarger received a phone call from the architect who designed the IAM Union's headquarters building, which opened in 1992. The two have stayed in touch over the years. The architect called to talk about artificial intelligence, and what he described set the frame for the rest of the conversation on the podcast.
18 to 24 Months, Now Five Minutes
The architect opened by asking Buffenbarger whether he remembered how long it took to design the IAM Union headquarters. It included the concept phase, the presentation, the building codes, the site plans and the utilities. That process took 18 to 24 months. The architect told Buffenbarger that he can now do all of it in five minutes using quantum computing and AI.
The new workflow follows a different track. A client calls and says they want a three-story, 25,000-square-foot office brick building. The firm searches a radius of 100 to 200 miles, pulls images of every comparable building and sends them to the client within minutes. The client picks one or combines elements from several. The firm then sends back a complete proposal — design, applicable building codes, power connection, water and sewage specifications — within 15 minutes. The client was expecting the process to take months.
The architect’s forecast for the future included concern. He told Buffenbarger that contractors are beginning to realize they no longer need an architect. They can go directly to quantum computing. The architect explained that he and his colleagues spent five or six years in school learning the craft, but that craft is going to disappear. He described himself as a craftsman, the same way a machinist, an electrical worker or an ironworker is considered a craftsman. Only his craft is at risk.
Manufacturing Without Workers
The architect also told Buffenbarger that clients are requesting manufacturing plants and production facilities designed with minimal human infrastructure. Space for restrooms, cafeterias, break rooms and parking lots is being scaled back or designed out. Not eliminated entirely yet, he said, but reduced. The clients are trying to envision what manufacturing will look like in the near future, and that future has little room for human beings.
Buffenbarger said the motivation behind all the change lacks a transition plan and shows no concern for the affected workers. The technology is available, and those who don’t adopt it won’t be able to compete. But the costs to workers are not part of that calculation, he said.
TVA and the Nuclear Return
At the Kentucky State Council meeting, Buffenbarger also visited with members from the Tennessee Valley Authority, which operates the nation's largest public power system. The TVA workers shared what they know about the electricity demand now being generated by data centers and AI infrastructure. The TVA is famous for its hydroelectric capacity. The problem is that there are few viable new dam sites left. Existing hydroelectric capacity cannot meet the new demand, he was told. TVA's assessment, as Buffenbarger described it, is that the only practical path to meeting the electricity demand generated by AI infrastructure is a significant return to nuclear energy.
That return would generate a surge in construction jobs and significant employment for years. But once construction is complete, the new plants would require few workers to operate and maintain. The construction wave will crest and subside. What remains will not employ many people, Buffenbarger said.
The picture the TVA employees painted, paired with architects describing their profession disappearing and manufacturers designing out human infrastructure, projections of a nuclear buildout to serve AI facilities that will need few workers, all add up to something Buffenbarger described as scary and full of uncertainty.
What It Means for the Workers Starting Out Now
Based on the future he presented, Buffenbarger said he is glad to be on the back end of his career. He is concerned for his children, who are now working, and for his grandchildren, who are watching all of this take shape as they begin to consider their career paths.
He cited a conversation with a nephew studying civil engineering in Cincinnati who expressed real uncertainty about whether there would be work in his field by the time he graduates. Buffenbarger said that there is legitimate uncertainty about what the economy will actually look like in five to 10 years.
His one note of relative optimism was the energy sector. Whatever AI does to the demand for architects, machinists, engineers and factory workers, it will still require enormous amounts of electricity to function. Generating, transmitting and maintaining that electricity requires skilled workers. The data centers, the AI infrastructure and the nuclear plants that power them will all need to be built and maintained by human beings. Energy is where durable jobs are most likely to be found in the future.
More information on the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers is available at goiam.org.
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